The Bitcoin Heatmap

Every monthly entry since 2010, every common holding horizon — bitcoin's outperformance against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ-100 across roughly 1,500 possible windows, in one grid.

Amber means bitcoin outperformed over that window; red means it lost. Intensity shows by how much. Click any cell to load that exact scenario into the chart below.

Bitcoin compared to:

Bitcoin mode:

View:

Holding period

Entry month →

<−50% −50% to −10% ±10% +10% to 2× 2× to 5× >5×

Color = bitcoin’s outperformance multiple over the comparator. Click any cell to load that scenario into the chart below. View toggle above: Period return reads each cell as the return over the cell’s specific window — short windows can show red even when long-term holders did fine. Held to today reads each cell as the return from that entry date to today, for someone who held through — turning historical short-window dips orange once you account for the eventual recovery.

Lump sum at the cyclical top

Bought at:

Start date?The date the position begins. Use the preset buttons above to jump to a cyclical top, or drag the slider for any date from 2010 onwards. In lump-sum mode this is the day the single investment is made; in weekly DCA mode it’s the day the weekly buys start. Nov 30, 2013

Lump-sum amount?The hypothetical dollar amount invested as a single lump sum on the start date. The calculation tracks what that amount would have become in each asset class through today. $10,000

Wealth-over-time — lump sum invested at the chosen start date

Log-scale Y-axis. All three series start at the same dollar amount on the start date and track their respective asset’s value through today.

Bitcoin

Value today

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S&P 500

Value today (total return)

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NASDAQ-100

Value today (total return)

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See the full argument

Bitcoin vs. The Stock Market

You've explored the historical record. The full page builds the argument around it — the Power Law framework that anticipates this pattern, individual cyclical-top stress tests, the forward projection across a typical investor's holding horizon, and the takeaway.

Read «Bitcoin vs. The Stock Market» →