All Updates

7/23/26 New: Discount, or Premium? — bitcoin spends its life swinging above and below one long-run trend, and this page tells you which side it is on right now. It shows the current price, the trend price, and the multiple between them, then lets you pick how fast a return to trend might happen and shows what that would mean as an annual return — always beside the return you would get if the multiple never moved at all. It also runs the same arithmetic against the past four cycle tops, where it reads sharply negative: the lens is deliberately two-sided, and it is not a buy signal. 7/23/26 New: common-questions sections added to Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation, Wait-or-Deploy-Now, and Bitcoin vs. Real Estate — the key questions each page answers, stated plainly and up front, with links through to the sibling pages that treat them in depth. 7/23/26 New: a homepage carousel slide for Bull & Bear Cycles — a weathered mooring post standing in dark water at dusk after a storm, each swell smaller than the one before, an ember of light on the horizon. Bitcoin's bear markets so far have each been smaller than the one before; the slide links straight to the page. 7/17/26 Updated: Bitcoin vs. Real Estate — the down payment is now yours to set. Both the retrospective and projection calculators take a “down payment %” (default 20%), and everything downstream recomputes: the up-front amount, the loan and monthly payment, the equity you would hold and the “% owned” figure, and the rent estimate, which tracks the payment. Set 10% for more leverage or 40% for less; a shared projection link now carries your choice. 7/16/26 Site-wide: a slim channel barometer now sits under the header on every page — the live ×-trend multiple, where bitcoin sits in the Power Law channel, and the spot price, at a glance (it links through to the channel itself). Alongside it, quiet “New” and “Updated” badges now appear in the menus and on the calculators, so you can see what has changed recently without hunting; they appear and expire on their own. 7/16/26 Reworked: How Much Cash? is now a two-step instrument on the Power Law channel. Step 1 — set where you sold; Step 2 — set where you want to rebuy, on the same track, so the gap between the two is your strategy at a glance. The rebuy target is a free slider (its ceiling, your own sale, is marked on the track) that moves independently of the sell slider. The verdict reads out as cards: how often the target arrived, the typical wait, and the bitcoin that came back per bitcoin sold after tax — or, with your stack entered, your whole new stack (10 → 11.6 BTC). The sell slider is now colored by the data itself — red where the round trip has historically lost bitcoin, green where it earned, with the crossing where the numbers put it, shifting as you change the tax. The summary chart shades the stretch your strategy spans, today's point glows on it, and a "Show the work" link opens the full historical record behind every number. Beneath the cards, the headline figure is broken into its two branches — what the round trip returned when the target arrived, and what the two-year fallback gave when it didn't (the headline blends both) — all drawn from the modern era, since 2014, with full two-year records only. Step 1 and Step 2 now carry the same blue and green as their lines on the chart, and the channel chart shows the full price history with the thin pre-2014 era dimmed — the model draws its entries only from 2014 on. When you set the rebuy target at or above your sale, the green line now visibly docks onto your sale line (the rule there is simply any lower entry), and the warning copy is concrete about the two steps: where you sell, and how you rebuy. When the target never arrives, the outcome is shown as what it really is — the bitcoin you kept plus the cash you held, valued at the two-year price (the cash was never spent chasing a rebuy far above your sale). The page says "bitcoin" throughout and remembers your settings on this device between visits (a shared link still shows exactly what it encodes). 7/15/26 Rebuilt: How Much Cash? now answers a sharper question. Raising cash is selling, so pick a share of your stack and a moment in the channel, and see how that trade actually ended across the whole record — how often a cheaper rebuy arrived, and what it bought back after tax. 7/13/26 Improved: the "copy chart as image" button now bakes the chart's context into the picture. An exported chart carries the section title and the one-line explainer that sits above it on the page, and on the calculators it also carries your current assumptions — the stress test's "Your plan:" line, the allocation drift line, and so on — read live at the moment you export, so a shared image always reflects the state you were looking at. The footer (chart title and lastcoinstanding.com) is unchanged. 7/13/26 New: Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation now carries your scenario forward to the retirement tools. Set a portfolio size and a link converts your allocation into an actual bitcoin stack — your 38% of $1.8M is about 11 BTC at today's price — and hands it to The Bitcoin Retirement so you can see what it retires. Drop a crash on the year-by-year chart and a second link carries that same crash, its depth and recovery, into The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test. Each link states exactly what it carries and the price it used, and only appears when the numbers behind it are set — no guessing, no silent state transfer. 7/13/26 New: two homepage carousel slides — Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation and The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test — added as a pair, decision then consequence. The first is an amber ink bloom spreading through dark water (a small position quietly reshaping the whole portfolio); the second is a stone bridge standing in a river at flood (the whole plan under load). Each links straight to its calculator. 7/13/26 Fix: The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test — the "worst timing" finder now reports the stack's low point in the same dollars as the verdict and chart. It was quoting its internal ranking figure (a today's-dollars, spending-cut-adjusted low), which read lower than the ~$1.0M the verdict showed for the same crash and left the two looking inconsistent. The finder still ranks candidate years the same way, but the number it shows is now that year's actual low in plain dollars — and when a spending cut is on it says so ("with your 30% cut"), since the cut leaves the low a little higher. 7/13/26 Polish: The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test — clearer verdict copy and a cleaner chart. The survival verdict now tells the stress in one line, from where the stack stood before the crash to where it fell and by how much ("from about $2.4M to $1.0M, a 58% fall"), so the drop, its dollars, and its percentage read together instead of scattered across sentences. When a weak recovery never brings the price back, the verdict says the stack stays below its old level through the horizon rather than implying a return that never comes. And the crash-plus-cut line on the main chart is now amber like the cut bars elsewhere, so at a glance it reads apart from the rose crash line: blue is the plan, rose is the crash, amber is the crash with a spending cut. 7/13/26 Polish: The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test — clearer labels and a corrected "worst timing" finder. The mitigation lever is now called "Spending cut" with −10/−20/−30% presets, and the mitigated bars in the comparison chart are amber so they read apart from the crash bars at a glance. The comparison table's last column is now "Final stack vs no crash" with values like −61% and a tooltip explaining it. Most importantly, "Find the worst timing" now scores by how close the plan comes to failure along the way (its lowest point), not just where it ends — so it names an early crash, matching the page's own lesson that early is brutal, rather than a final-year dip that only looks bad on paper. A new note explains the honest reading of a recovery: the price returns to trend, but the coins sold while it was down do not — that residual gap is the sequence cost. 7/13/26 Fixed: the "today's bitcoin price" readouts across the site now only say "live" when the price really is live. When the live fetch is blocked (ad-blockers and rate limits sometimes stop it), pages fall back to the most recent monthly data point — and now they label it honestly as "latest monthly data" instead of calling a stale number live. The fetch also retries once before falling back, and the underlying data was brought current, so the fallback is close to spot even when it is used. 7/13/26 Updated: The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test — now shows what you can do about a badly-timed crash, not just diagnose it. A new spending-flexibility lever cuts your withdrawals while the market sits below its pre-crash level, the real-world response to a bear market, and the verdict states plainly what the cut buys and what it costs in forgone income, including the headline case where full spending depletes the stack but the cut lets the plan survive. Under a weak recovery the market never fully returns, so the cut runs to the end, and the tool says so. A "Find the worst timing" button scans every crash year under your current settings and jumps to the one that hurts most, so you don't have to hunt for it by hand. It finds the worst timing, not a forecast, and still makes no predictions. 7/13/26 Tweak: The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test now opens on a −60% crash rather than the −77% worst case. A stress test should let you dial up to the deepest historical drawdown, not greet you with it pre-selected — so −60% (a real but mid-severity bear) is the default, and −77%, bitcoin's historical characteristic depth, is still one tap away. Nothing else about the scenario changed; the deeper crash tells the same story, harder. 7/12/26 Updated: Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation — a clearer results readout. The composition bars under the chart are now scaled to value: each bar's length shows how much the portfolio is worth, its segments show the bitcoin/traditional split, and a third always-on bar shows what the same money does with no bitcoin at all. Values read as multiples of today (or dollars if you enter a portfolio size), so the comparison is immediate. The underwater band's tint and its "years underwater" label were also cleaned up so the label never clips at the chart edge, even for a late crash. 7/12/26 Updated: Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation — the crash view now shows how long you're underwater. A shaded band and a dashed pre-crash-level line mark the years the portfolio sits below where it stood when the crash hit, labelled with the number of years (or "not recovered within your horizon"). A compact year-by-year results line sits under the composition bars, the chart's vertical scale now stays fixed while you drag the crash year or switch recovery shapes (so scenarios are directly comparable), and you can deep-link straight into a configured crash view. Underwater is measured on the whole portfolio, not the bitcoin sleeve; none of it is a forecast. 7/12/26 Updated: Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation — drop a crash onto the year-by-year chart. A new "What if a crash lands along the way?" control lets you place a bitcoin crash on any year and pick its recovery (Fast, Historical, or Weak), then watch the value dip and recover against a no-bitcoin benchmark. The verdict says plainly whether the allocation ends ahead, behind, or roughly even by your horizon — and behind is a real answer for an early crash with a weak recovery at a short horizon. With annual rebalancing also on, you can see the reset buy bitcoin while it's down. The crash hits the bitcoin sleeve only, recovery shapes follow historical patterns, and none of it is a forecast. 7/12/26 Updated: Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation — a new "Your portfolio, year by year" chart. Watch a small bitcoin position drift from a sliver into a dominant share of the portfolio over your horizon, with a dashed crash line that shows how the same-depth bear takes a bigger bite as the position grows. Composition bars read your share today and at the horizon, and an optional comparison asks what annual rebalancing would do — with an honest note that on a smooth trend path rebalancing always shows the lower endpoint, so this is the drift trade-off, not a verdict on rebalancing. The year-by-year path is in the audit table and CSV. 7/9/26 New: Bitcoin Portfolio Allocation. How Much Bitcoin finds the optimal fraction; this answers a plainer question: over a long horizon, does adding bitcoin make your portfolio meaningfully better, despite the drawdowns? Set an allocation and get the answer with its cost in the same breath: the extra return, the drawdown you must be able to hold through, and how much of your portfolio's movement bitcoin drives. That movement is the engine of the return, not a hazard: volatility is not risk, and the real danger is being shaken out and selling into the fall. Bitcoin's growth is projected from its Power Law with a regime-aware default, and a transparency line explains why the number is what it is. The assumptions sit above the slider with a reset, and it makes no recommendation on what to pick. 7/6/26 New: The Bitcoin Retirement Stress Test. Take your retirement plan and drop a bear market into it, then change the one thing that decides the outcome: the year you retire. The same stack and spending can pass or fail on retirement year alone, because retiring early means selling into the crash before the stack has compounded. Compare early against late side by side, see whether the plan survives or runs dry, and read the levers that matter most: when you retire and how much you draw relative to your stack. It shows failure plainly and makes no predictions. 7/6/26 New: Bitcoin Bull & Bear Cycles — Bitcoin's best returns and deepest drawdowns are one fact, not two. A live read on where the current cycle sits, the four historical bears with a day-zero overlay, a computed volatility trend, why volatility isn't the same as losing your money, and why sizing is what lets you survive the fall. It refuses, on purpose, to guess where the bottom is. 7/5/26 Updated: The Bitcoin Retirement — major enhancements. A year-by-year view of your retirement (portfolio value, annual change, and growth), a "Verify the math" audit table where every number reconciles by hand and exports to CSV, and controls to explore the assumptions honestly: reverts-to-trend vs. today's gap-to-trend, nominal vs. real (today's) dollars, and whether your income target is in today's dollars or a fixed future amount. Escape-velocity and depletion now track whichever assumptions you pick. 6/30/26 New: Wait, or Deploy Now? — from any position in the channel, see whether waiting for a lower Bitcoin entry historically got you more coins, or whether the dip you'd be waiting for usually never came. The position-aware close to the deployment trilogy. 6/25/26 New: Your Bitcoin Deployment Plan — the personal companion to Lump Sum or Ladder In? Model your own sum as a lump, a ladder, or a hybrid, and see how it would have played out across real history and how it might play out ahead, shown as a range. With rising-channel cautions front and centre. 6/23/26 New: Lump Sum or Ladder In? — deploy a windfall all at once or spread it out, and watch the answer flip with where Bitcoin sits in the Power Law channel. Drag the scrubber: decisive when cheap, patient when stretched, committed always. A retrospective teaching demonstration of how the two compared. 6/19/26 New: Bitcoin & Metcalfe's Law — does price really grow with the square of adoption? Measured from on-chain data the exponent comes in below the quadratic ideal, and the deeper finding is that the signal itself is fading: as ownership moves into ETFs and custody, on-chain holder counts stop tracking who really owns Bitcoin. Interactive proxy/era selector with a live fit chart. 6/16/26 New: The Bitcoin Doubling Ladder — the Power Law seen through price doublings, with an interactive ladder, a deviation wave showing how far the market strays from trend, and a scenario slider for the rungs ahead. 6/14/26 New: Risks to Bitcoin — ten risks to the network, each stated in its strongest form and answered, from state attack and the security budget to quantum computing and a rival coin. Each closes with the markers that would tell us the risk is becoming real. 6/10/26 New: How Much Bitcoin? — the Kelly criterion's startling answer to position sizing, an interactive growth curve under Power Law scenarios, and the honest case for taking a fraction of the formula. 6/9/26 New: Paper Bitcoin vs. Real Bitcoin — an ETF, an exchange balance, a multisig vault, a hardware wallet: each is a different asset wearing bitcoin's price. An interactive property grid compares five ways of holding bitcoin across ten dimensions, from confiscation reach to inheritance. 6/7/26 New: Bitcoin and Fixed Income — how bitcoin-backed preferreds (STRC, SATA) compare against conventional fixed income and against simply holding bitcoin, across growth scenarios, stress overlays, and horizons. Five tabs from the structural question to the bear case in detail. 6/4/26 New: Bitcoin vs. Rental Property — the honest yield comparison after landlord costs and exit taxes. Includes an interactive calculator that runs your scenario across bitcoin growth and four exit paths. Now on the homepage and as carousel slide #3. 5/31/26 New: Start Here — a curated orientation pathway for newcomers. Seven explorations sequenced so each one earns the next (framework → emotion → quantification → introduction → mechanism → evidence → commitment), with explicit payoff per step and an applied-next-steps block at the end. Linked prominently from the homepage hero for 'New to Bitcoin?' visitors 5/30/26 The Gallery is now featured on the homepage's Latest section — a curated vertical scroll-through of the ten most striking charts across the site, each chart full-size with editorial framing. Designed as the highest-level entry point for any skeptical reader who wants the structural argument at a glance 5/30/26 The Gallery now has its own social card and search-engine baseline — links unfurl cleanly when shared, and it shows up in search alongside the other pages. 5/30/26 Small fix on The Bitcoin Horizon: the §2 chart caption (under the rolling-CAGR chart) was constrained to 72 characters wide and stopped well short of the chart's right edge. Removed the max-width — caption now flows to the full chart-panel width, matching the chart canvas above it 5/30/26 Gallery: the Volatility Is Not Risk chart now starts from 2015 — a more conservative window that still shows bitcoin's worst 10-year CAGR sitting comfortably above the S&P 500's. Plus a subtle 'you are here' marker on the Power Law chart. 5/30/26 Gallery: the Heatmap chart gains a 'Held to today' toggle — most of the red losses turn amber once you keep holding. 5/30/26 Gallery v2 complete. Final three charts live: the BTC vs S&P 500 outperformance grid, the half-life of a dollar's purchasing power, and how bitcoin's CAGR variance compresses over longer horizons. 5/30/26 Gallery Chart 7 rebuilt: replaced the $10K-invested-in-2010 wealth chart (a cherry-pick of the best possible start year) with a rolling 4-year CAGR comparison. Bitcoin's returns decline over time but still beat the S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 in every window. 5/30/26 Gallery polish: clearer section dividers between charts, a sharper Chart 2 title, and more concrete claims in the Power Law vs S&P 500 convergence footnote. 5/30/26 Gallery Commit C: three more charts live. Global housing affordability across HK / Sydney / Vancouver / London / US (Demographia ratios), BTC needed for retirement decay curve (4% rule, anchors at year 0/+10/+20/+30), and $10K invested in 2010 — bitcoin vs S&P 500 TR vs NASDAQ-100 TR. Seven charts done; three to go in the final commit 5/30/26 Gallery Commit B: three more charts live. Power Law implied CAGR vs. S&P 500 (with convergence footnote), BTC required to buy the median US house (2013→2025 actual, projected trend to 2032), and the real opportunity cost of buying a house (start-year toggle 2014/2016/2018/2020/2022). Four charts done; six to go 5/30/26 Gallery Chart 1 polish: white historical line now extends to today's live price; hover tooltip shows trend + floor + upper at the hover X (not just nearest); today marker has the radial-gradient halo from the Disciplined Rebalancing chart; editorial prose spans the full chart width for a tighter scroll rhythm between charts 5/30/26 The Gallery rebuilt as a vertical scroll-through of full charts (was a teaser card grid). Chart 1 of 10 live: the Power Law channel in ±2y default view with All-time / Near / Planning toggle. Nine more charts arriving in three follow-up commits 5/30/26 Gallery palette finally rendering correctly (real fix: nested <style> tags in page CSS were breaking the :root variable block). Calculators featured tiles now have matched heights 5/30/26 Calculators page: featured row now leads with The Bitcoin Retirement (with its live mini-preview) — Heatmap moved out, since it's not strictly a calculator and already lives in The Gallery 5/30/26 Gallery polish: page now renders against the proper dark palette (body background + CSS variables were missing on first ship). Calculators page H1 updated to match the nav label 5/30/26 The Gallery is open: 8 chart cards, with the Power Law channel as a live hero and the rest as v1 hand-drawn previews — a visual table-of-contents for the site 5/30/26 Homepage ticker polish: ₿ + price in Bitcoin orange with a slow heartbeat glow 5/30/26 New section: The Gallery — a visual index of charts across the site (placeholder for now; first chart cards land shortly). Nav: Tools renamed to Calculators 5/29/26 Bitcoin Retirement calculator: wider input sliders (3-column grid) now that withdrawal rate is a derived readout, allowing finer-grained dragging 5/29/26 Bitcoin Retirement calculator: withdrawal rate now a derived readout under target income, making the mathematical linkage between the two visible 5/29/26 Bitcoin vs. Real Estate calculator: Power Law scenarios clarified (Upper = cycle peak, ~3× trend) and canonical ? tooltips throughout 5/29/26 Bitcoin vs. Real Estate calculator: Real / Nominal display toggle for projected values, with inflation-aware tooltips 5/29/26 Bitcoin vs. Real Estate calculator: input formatting polish ($/comma/%) and clearer projected-value phrasing with future-date context 5/28/26 Bitcoin vs. Real Estate calculator: cross-session persistence for user inputs + reformed NET headline on retrospective 5/28/26 Bitcoin vs. Real Estate: seesaw chart start-year selector + start-price transparency in comparison table 5/28/26 Bitcoin vs. Real Estate: new Global Affordability Crisis chart (5-market Demographia data, Tokyo case study) 5/28/26 Power Law pages: live BTC price + consistent today-anchor across Disciplined Rebalancing, Bitcoin Retirement, and Borrowing Against Your Stack 5/24/26 Homepage: new What Money Is For exploration added to carousel with silent video intro